On March 5th, American Ambassador Thomas Pickering gave a most interesting lecture on Russian-American relations.

During the course of the year, Russian President Putin has frequently vocalized a number of issues that have been troubling him. He is worried, as we Europeans have always been, about American unilateralism. He sees America as a man with a hammer and every problem as a nail. But there are also other issues that make him itch. Putin is neither satisfied with NATO expanding in his backyard nor with the fact that American military bases are now surrounding Russia as an aftermath of the war in Afghanistan. After all, he was hoping that the moment the Talibans would be defeated, the bases would be dismantled.

It is true that Russia is in a stronger position than just a few years ago. After all, the US desperately needs Russian support to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue and Europe is highly dependant on Russian gas. Also, Russia has finally managed to repay all its international loans going from being a creditor country to finding themselves in a comfortable debtor situation. Year after year, foreign investment has been souring and a 5.7% 2007 budget surplus is expected. This, combined with Putin’s high internal popularity and its veto in the Security Council allows Russia to, from time to time, punch above her weight.

Nevertheless, there is a huge demographic crisis going on in Russia; population is decreasing by 700.000 a year, rural migration to cities is unstoppable, war in Chechnya has been incredibly draining and has raised international criticism. All of this, combined with incredibly high rates of alcoholism, ramping aids infections and a bad health system –which is thank God slowly improving- is lowering the health expectancy. Therefore, Russia does not really have the means to create this counterbalance they so badly want this there are a number of internal affairs they need to first solve.

Ambassador Pickering made a call to have Russia and the US work closer together in order to surmount their differences. First and most importantly, Russia is currently negotiating its adherence to the WTO. This would be a very positive aspect for world trade and the US should back her up. Secondly, the Iranian nuclear issue represents a terrific opportunity for both sides to resolve their differences. Although both countries agree that Iran should not have nukes, their approaches differ. While Russia thinks that the US should use more diplomacy to resolve the issue, the US is longing for much stronger and tougher Russian involvement. This is starting to happen as can be read in this Tuesday’s New York Times where Russia has threatened Iran not provide the necessary fuel for their nuclear reactor at Brushehr. The third window of opportunity is to intermediate in the Arab-Israeli situation and to find a peaceful solution to what has become an unsustainable situation.

We will see if this happens, all that is clear is what Churchill wisely once said: “Russia is a riddle wrapped inside an enigma”.