The Dean of Birzeit University, Ali Jarbani, came to Columbia on Monday April 3rd and gave us his very interesting perspective on what he considers are the best solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. For him, there are three possible alternatives:

1.- The “2 state solution” where you have an Israeli State and a Palestinian State based on the 1967 borders. Israel should leave Gaza and the West Bank, Palestinians should organize their state and, at a second stage, bridges could be built between both states.

2.- The “1 State solution”. Different people would call it different things, but the concept would be the same: A country where both Israeli and Palestinians live in peace together under a secular and democratic nation. For a while, this would create an “apartheid” regime where you have to classes of citizens, but in the long run, the new state would follow the steps of South Africa.

3.- The State of Israel plus a “State of Leftovers”; which entails squeezing the Palestinians as much as possible by building the infamous wall outside of the UN recognized Israeli borders, keeping the checkpoints in place, building settlements, etc. Ali Jarbani made it clear that this is what the Israeli government is intending and, at the same time, what Palestinians will never accept while only provoking resentment and hatred.

The prime obsession for the Israeli government is now, rightly, the demographic issue. Palestinian reproduction rates are much higher than those of their Israeli neighbors. Therefore, they will never accept the 1 state solution, -Ali Jarbani’s favourite option- since this would lead to, in the long run, having an Israeli state with a muslim majority. On the other hand, one could argue that this would not be the case, since higher standards of living and education would lower the Palestinians reproduction rates to those similar to the Israelis.

The reason Palestinians should work towards option number one, Ali Jardani insists, is because the current situation favors Israel and its “state of leftovers” policy. By allowing the existence of the National Palestinian Authority (the NPA) they can blame the entire fault on an “authority” which is completely bankrupt and is therefore economically and politically squeezed to accepting the third option. That is, the NPA is an authority which is everything but an authority.

The creation of the NPA was a beautiful way of permitting Israel to savie face vis-à-vis the international community while building more settlements. Ali Jardani is in favor of dismembering the NPA. Israel would then be forced towards option number one, which in turn would slowly but surely end up creating a 2 state solution: “Israel should be alarmed with the demographic issue and therefore will not accept Palestinians as Israeli citizens. Palestinians will never accept the current apartheid situation therefore the only alternative is the 2 State solution”. It is nevertheless important to note that other Palestinian scholars and leaders, such as Arafat, are completely against such a policy.

As Ali Jarbani interestingly noted, the “left-over Palestinian region is the only area in the world where you live in an autonomous region, outside of a state, where its inhabitants do not have the citizenship of the state”. Also interesting, was his definition of occupation as a “situation where you loose control over your destiny”. Food for thought.

On March 5th, American Ambassador Thomas Pickering gave a most interesting lecture on Russian-American relations.

During the course of the year, Russian President Putin has frequently vocalized a number of issues that have been troubling him. He is worried, as we Europeans have always been, about American unilateralism. He sees America as a man with a hammer and every problem as a nail. But there are also other issues that make him itch. Putin is neither satisfied with NATO expanding in his backyard nor with the fact that American military bases are now surrounding Russia as an aftermath of the war in Afghanistan. After all, he was hoping that the moment the Talibans would be defeated, the bases would be dismantled.

It is true that Russia is in a stronger position than just a few years ago. After all, the US desperately needs Russian support to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue and Europe is highly dependant on Russian gas. Also, Russia has finally managed to repay all its international loans going from being a creditor country to finding themselves in a comfortable debtor situation. Year after year, foreign investment has been souring and a 5.7% 2007 budget surplus is expected. This, combined with Putin’s high internal popularity and its veto in the Security Council allows Russia to, from time to time, punch above her weight.

Nevertheless, there is a huge demographic crisis going on in Russia; population is decreasing by 700.000 a year, rural migration to cities is unstoppable, war in Chechnya has been incredibly draining and has raised international criticism. All of this, combined with incredibly high rates of alcoholism, ramping aids infections and a bad health system –which is thank God slowly improving- is lowering the health expectancy. Therefore, Russia does not really have the means to create this counterbalance they so badly want this there are a number of internal affairs they need to first solve.

Ambassador Pickering made a call to have Russia and the US work closer together in order to surmount their differences. First and most importantly, Russia is currently negotiating its adherence to the WTO. This would be a very positive aspect for world trade and the US should back her up. Secondly, the Iranian nuclear issue represents a terrific opportunity for both sides to resolve their differences. Although both countries agree that Iran should not have nukes, their approaches differ. While Russia thinks that the US should use more diplomacy to resolve the issue, the US is longing for much stronger and tougher Russian involvement. This is starting to happen as can be read in this Tuesday’s New York Times where Russia has threatened Iran not provide the necessary fuel for their nuclear reactor at Brushehr. The third window of opportunity is to intermediate in the Arab-Israeli situation and to find a peaceful solution to what has become an unsustainable situation.

We will see if this happens, all that is clear is what Churchill wisely once said: “Russia is a riddle wrapped inside an enigma”.