Netrebko, please forgive me yet again, but my Professor Waltz deserves this publication asap!Columbia attracts the biggest geopolitical thinkers. Yesterday we were treated with a debate on Iranian nuclear proliferation between Stanford Professor Robert Sagan and Columbia’s Kenneth Waltz. These men are geniuses.
Waltz basically reflected Chirac’s -unofficial- position. Namely, if Iran gets the nuclear bomb, what is the big deal? We will be able to cope with such a threat. After all, we coped with much bigger risks during the Cold War. You might argue that the nukes are now in hands of a bunch of Islamic fundamentalists, but, if we make an effort to remember, I do not recall we considered Khrushchev and Mao “enfants de coeur”. Plus, in almost 60 years, only 9 countries have nukes, “this is not proliferation, this is glacial spread”.
After all, if you were Iran, would you not do the same if you were under the American threat? If the President of the United States had named you as part of the Axis of Evil and had already taken down one of those countries carrying the same honorific distinction, would you not do all you can to protect yourself? History has proven that the only way to deter the US, if they are really going after you is by getting nukes. Look at South Korea, they got the bomb and the United States has not been able to do anything about it, the risk is too great.
Waltz’s overtly optimistic conclusion was to “sleep well”.
Sagan, famous among other publications for his “Why do States Build Nuclear Weapons” article had a very different point of view. No optimism here.
View the famous article under: http://www.jstor.org/view/01622889/di008157/00p0004z/0
Sagan accuses Waltz of still living in the Cold War and not understanding the current situation. Risks are high but diplomatic intervention can still work. He mentioned three reasons why Iran should not go nuclear:
1.- If Iran has the bomb it will feel safer thus becoming more aggressive. How would we now prevent them from selling nuclear material to terrorist groups and being more provocative in Irak? They might even feel safer to attack American bases!
2.- Ambiguous control of the nukes: In Iran’s case the keys would be kept by the Revolutionary Guards which support Ahmadinejad. Trouble!
3.- Theft: A possible risk of attack by the US would force Iran to spread its weapons along the countryside, thus increasing the risk of theft by terrorist groups
He also made an interesting point, many scholars consider that Iran has a right to peaceful nuclear energy under Article 4 of the NPA (Non Proliferation Agreement). But, as he correctly pointed out, Article 4 clearly states that only "states in good stading" are allowed to make use of such energy. Cleary, Iran sacrificed this option when trying to hide a nuclear program and not allowing inspectors to their cites. This could hopefully change overtime, under a new Governement that would accept these rules.
Two different points of view, the only agreement being that we need to leave the table to the diplomats. Military intervention is not the solution and the next elections, both in Iran and the US might help us all out. Food for thought…
3 comentarios:
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Great! Really interesting... but just one point: you mixed South (non-nuke and pro-Western) and North Korea (nuke and communist). Hope American diplomats do not do the same mistake!
I missed your blog, please keep writing!
Cheers!
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